Incidence and risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with chronic pancreatitis: defining the optimal subgroup for surveillance

We aimed to present the incidence and risk factors for pancreatic cancer in a multicenter retrospective cohort of patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP). Patients with ICD-10 codes for CP (K86.0, K86.1) who underwent abdominal CT or MRI between January 2010 and December 2021 in seven academic hospitals were analyzed. After exclusions, we identified 727 patients with definite CP with a median follow-up of 3.6 years (range 1.0‒12.9). During 3290 person-years of observation, pancreatic cancers were diagnosed in 16 patients (2.20%, 0.49% per year) after a median follow-up of 2.4 years (range 1.4‒6.6), with an age- and sex-standardized incidence ratio of 18.1 (95% CI 10.4‒29.5). The underlying CPs in the 16 pancreatic cancers were classified as chronic obstructive pancreatitis (10, 63%), chronic obstructive and calcifying pancreatitis (4, 25%), chronic calcifying pancreatitis (1, 6%), and autoimmune pancreatitis (1, 6%). Factors associated with pancreatic cancer development included age (HR 4.830, p = 0.006), parenchymal calcification (HR 0.213, p = 0.003), pancreatic duct stricture (HR 2.706, p = 0.048), and serum CA 19‒9 level (HR 3.567, p = 0.014). After adjustment, age over 60 years (HR 4.540, p = 0.009) and serum CA 19‒9 levels greater than 100 U/mL (HR 3.528, p = 0.015) were independent risk factors for pancreatic cancer.