Prognostic model in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors after platinum failure

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have become a standard treatment for metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) after platinum-based chemotherapy. However, the prognostic factors for patients with mUC receiving ICIs are not well established. We retrospectively collected clinical and laboratory data and reviewed the survival outcomes of patients with mUC who were treated with ICIs after platinum-based chemotherapy. We used univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to identify independent prognostic factors, and the concordance index (C-index) to evaluate the performance of the new prognostic model. In addition, bootstrap analysis was employed for internal validation of the prognostic model. A total of 224 patients were included in the study. With a median follow-up of 10.5 months (interquartile range, 5.1-17.4 months), median overall survival (OS) was 13.6 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.7-17.3 months). In multivariable analysis, independent prognostic factors predicting adverse OS were the presence of liver metastasis (LM), hypoalbuminemia, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >5. When patients were categorized into 3 risk groups, median OS was not reached (NR) (95% CI, 17.3-NR), 9.5 months (6.8-NR), and 2.9 months (2.3-4.4) for patients with a score of 0, 1, and 2+, respectively. The C-index for the new model was 0.763 (95% CI, 0.739-0.787). A novel prognostic model, including LM, hypoalbuminemia, and NLR, was developed and validated to estimate OS in patients with platinum-refractory disease on second- or subsequent-line ICI therapy. Further investigations, including prospective validation, are needed.