Risk of Cause-Specific Mortality across Glucose Spectrum in Elderly People: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: This study investigated the risk of cause-specific mortality according to glucose tolerance status in elderly South Koreans. Methods: A total of 1,292,264 individuals aged ≥65 years who received health examinations in 2009 were identified from the National Health Information Database. Participants were classified as normal glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose, newly-diagnosed diabetes, early diabetes (oral hypoglycemic agents ≤2), or advanced diabetes (oral hypoglycemic agents ≥3 or insulin). The risk of system-specific and disease-specific deaths was estimated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.41 years, 257,356 deaths were recorded. Diabetes was associated with significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.57 to 1.60); death due to circulatory (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.46 to 1.52), respiratory (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.47 to 1.55), and genitourinary systems (HR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.10 to 2.35); and neoplasms (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.32). Diabetes was also associated with a significantly higher risk of death due to ischemic heart disease (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.63 to 1.76), cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.41 to 1.50), pneumonia (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.63 to 1.76), and acute or chronic kidney disease (HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 2.09 to 2.38). There was a stepwise increase in the risk of death across the glucose spectrum (P for trend <0.0001). Stroke, heart failure, or chronic kidney disease increased the risk of all-cause mortality at every stage of glucose intolerance. Conclusion: A dose-dependent association between the risk of mortality from various causes and severity of glucose tolerance was noted in the elderly population.