Weight change and the incidence of heart failure in the Korean population: data from the National Health Insurance Health checkup 2005-2015

Aims: Heart failure (HF) is associated with obesity, but the relationship between weight change and HF is inconsistent. We examined the relationship between weight change and the incidence of HF in the Korean population. Design: Retrospective cohort study design. Methods and results: A total of 11 210 394 subjects (6 198 542 men and 5 011 852 women) >20 years of age were enrolled in this study. Weight change over 4 years divided into seven categories from weight loss ≥15% to weight gain ≥15%. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for the incidence of HF were analysed. The HR of HF showed a slightly reverse J-shaped curve by increasing weight change in total and >15% weight loss shows the highest HR (HR 1.647) followed by -15 to -10% weight loss (HR = 1.444). When using normal body mass index with stable weight group as a reference, HR of HF decreased as weight increased in underweight subjects and weight gain ≥15% in obesity Stage II showed the highest HR (HR = 2.97). Sustained weight for 4 years in the underweight and obesity Stages I and II increased the incidence of HF (HR = 1.402, 1.092, and 1.566, respectively). Conclusion: Both weight loss and weight gain increased HR for HF. Sustained weight in the obesity or underweight categories increased the incidence of HF.